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  • Newmyer Wealth Management

Decoding Inflation Metrics: CPI vs. PCE - Unveiling the Price Puzzle

The Consumer Price Index (CPI) and the Personal Consumption Expenditures Price Index (PCE) are both measures used by economists and policymakers to track inflation, but they have some key differences in their methodologies and scope:

Scope of Goods and Services:

  • CPI: It primarily measures the price changes of goods and services purchased by urban households.  It includes a wide range of expenditures such as food, housing, transportation, healthcare, and education.

  • PCE: It measures the price changes of goods and services purchased by both households and non-profit institutions serving households (NPISH).  This includes personal consumption expenditures made by individuals, businesses, and government entities on behalf of households.  PCE also includes some items that are not covered by CPI, such as healthcare services paid for by third parties (e.g., employers or government programs).

Data Source:

  • CPI: It is based on surveys conducted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) of the U.S. Department of Labor.  These surveys gather price data from urban areas across the country.

  • PCE: It is derived from the personal consumption expenditures component of the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPAs) compiled by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) within the U.S. Department of Commerce.  PCE utilizes a broader dataset that includes information from businesses, government agencies, and other sources.

Weighting Method:

  • CPI: It uses a fixed basket of goods and services with fixed weights based on expenditure patterns of a reference population (urban households).  The weights are updated periodically to reflect changes in consumer spending habits.

  • PCE: It employs a chain-weighting method, which allows for adjustments in the basket of goods and services and their respective weights each period.  This method is considered more flexible and may provide a more accurate reflection of changes in consumption patterns over time.

Calculation Approach:

  • CPI: It uses a Laspeyres index formula, which measures the average change in prices of a fixed basket of goods and services over time.

  • PCE: It uses a Fisher Ideal index formula, which accounts for changes in both the quantities and prices of goods and services consumed.   This formula is considered more theoretically sound as it addresses substitution effects and quality changes more effectively.

Frequency of Updates:

  • CPI: It is typically released monthly with a slight lag, usually around mid-month, and is widely used for indexing wages, pensions, and government benefits.

  • PCE: It is released quarterly as part of the broader GDP report and is closely watched by policymakers and economists for its implications on monetary and fiscal policy.

In summary, while both CPI and PCE are important indicators of inflation, they have different methodologies, coverage, and uses.  PCE is generally considered to provide a broader and more comprehensive measure of inflation, while CPI is more focused on the spending patterns of urban households.

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